South, west and northwest regions of India may see ‘sufficiently’ good rains while core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh may see adequate rainfall. However, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal “will be at risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August,” Skymet predicted.

In the first half of the season, the northeastern states will get ‘less than normal’ rains, it said.

“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years,” said Jatin Singh, MD, Skymet. Historically, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has tended to produce a “decent monsoon.”

However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase,” Singh said.

The southwest monsoon provides around 70 per cent of India’s yearly monsoon, vital for the country’s agriculture as it contributes around 14 per cent to the GDP and supports over half of the country’s 1.4 billion population.India received “below-average” cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm in the 2023 monsoon season, which was attributed to a strengthening El Nino.The IMD is set to issue the southwest monsoon forecast later this month.

IMD has forecast that India will experience ‘extreme heat’ between April to June, with central and western peninsular regions facing the worst impact. Above-normal heatwave days are likely over most parts in the plains during April-June, Mohapatra had said earlier.

(With PTI inputs)